Damage Control

In the winter of 2008 the Minnesota Twins traded (at the time) the best pitcher on the planet, Johan Santana, for a package of prospects from the New York Mets.  A trade that left most scratching their heads and almost everyone in agreement that the Twins screwed up royally in not pulling the trigger on a more lucrative deal at the 2007 trade deadline.

Today the Twins and GM Bill Smith did what they could to salvage that rare misstep when they traded the centerpiece of that Santana trade, center fielder Carlos Gomez, to the Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy.

Now clearly, what now amounts to a Santana-for-Hardy deal is hardly a win for the Twins, but you have to be impressed with their ability to acquire a young shortstop with a quality track record, 2009 notwithstanding.

Gomez was, for all intents and purposes, a complete waste of time for the Twins.  He had his moments, but they were few and far between, generally sandwiched between aggravating mental mistakes which killed his chances of ever becoming a full time player.

Powerless

On name recognition alone, the Minnesota Twins have one of the more impressive and young middle-of-the-order trios in all of baseball.

Between them, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young are the kind of high-profile talents that most teams would love to build their lineups around for the foreseeable future.

However there is one glaring issue that hangs over their heads like a long Minnesota winter. And that is a near total lack of power.

We'll excuse Morneau from this discussion as he's proven he can provide the pop necessary to drive in runs and drive the ball over the fence. But for Mauer and Young the outlook is not quite as bright.

Both were number one overall picks in their respective draft classes (2001 and 2003) and both have "projectable" power in their bats. At least that's what scouts will tell you and what Twins fans hope is true.

However a look at their track records point to something entirely different and startlingly familiar if you've followed the Twins so far in 2008.

We'll start with Mauer, or Baby Jesus as we like to call him. Ever since eschewing a chance to play football at Florida State, Mauer has been the darling of his home state organization. A big time athlete at the game's premium position, Mauer was said to have all the tools to do for catchers what Cal Ripken Jr. did for shortstops.

Always able to put the bat on the ball and possessing a sweet lefty stroke, most observers of a young Mauer believed that like most young top-prospect position players, the power would come soon enough.

Three seasons in the minor leagues and a career minor league batting average of over .330 later, it was time to unleash Mauer on the American League. And while he has certainly established himself as one of the very best backstops in baseball, the one thing that has yet to surface is the power.

But should that be such a huge surprise?

In 1,055 minor league at-bats Mauer managed a measly nine home runs, that's one every 117 at-bats. So far in his big league career he's got 35 homers in 1,664 at-bats, or one every 47.5 at-bats.

While it's true that his big league numbers are certainly an improvement, by comparison the AL's other top catcher, Victor Martinez of Cleveland, has hit a home run once ever 29 at-bats in his big league career (curiously he has also yet to homer in 2008).

This is not to say Mauer will never find his power stroke, but it looks more and more likely every day that the guy once thought of as a rare four-tool catcher may really be more of a three-tool guy with light hitting, middle-infielder power at best.

As for Young, his lack of power is a bit more of a surprise and disappointment given his early minor league success in the home run department.



In 1,413 minor league at-bats Young swatted 59 homers, or one every 24 at-bats. It was that type of raw ability that had always attracted scouts to Young and what ultimately made him a top draft choice.

Like Mauer, Young was also a very good contact hitter in the minors, finishing his career in baseball's lower levels as a .318 hitter. Sure he struck out nearly three times as much as he drew a walk, but with his power potential it was something teams could live with.

Ever since breaking into the major leagues however Young has seen his power almost completely disappear while his strikeout to walk ratio has spiked to nearly 5-to-1.

In his defense, 940 career big league at-bats does not a career make, but even the most optimistic Twins fan has to be concerned that Young is hitting one home run every 59 at-bats in his big league career so far, 20 at-bats more than it takes noted power hitting shortstop Alex Gonzalez of the Reds to hit one.

One of two things is going to happen with Young in my opinion. Either he's going to recognize that maybe the power really isn't there and settle into a Mauer-like groove of .300-plus batting average campaigns because he has the ability to do that if he learns a bit more patience.

Or he is going to have to sell out a la Adam Dunn in an effort to hit the ball over the fence which could only exasperate his already terrible strikeout to walk ratio.

The caveat to this entire discussion however is the age of both Mauer and Young. Mauer just recently turned 25 and Young is only 22, which means a boost in power could still be in the offing for both. However a lot is going to have to change for each if they expect to fulfill their power potential.

A Real Deal

I hate to keep piling on the Twins here, so I'll make this short.

The Baltimore Orioles completed a trade today that sent their ace lefty, Erik Bedard, to the Seattle Mariners for five players including former top prospect, outfielder Adam Jones. And I bring this up to point out just how painfully short the Twins came up in their trading of Johan Santana.

Don't get me wrong here, I love Bedard as a pitcher and in 2007 he had a career year striking out 221 batters in only 182 innings. But as great as he was for a bad Orioles team in 2007, his body of work pales in comparison to Santana's.

Last year marked the first time Bedard struck out 200+ batters in a season. Santana has accomplished that feat four years in a row since becoming a full time starter in 2004.

Bedard posted a career-best 3.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 2007. Santana's career-bests in those categories are 2.61(2004) and 0.92(2004) respectively. Not to mention the fact that Santana is a two-time Cy Young Award winner while Bedard's best finish in the race for the coveted award was 5th which came last year.

Both are 28 years old and Bedard is actually eight days older than Santana, but still with all that the Orioles were able to extract a ready-right-now talent like Jones as well as a top flight lefty reliever in George Sherrill who will most likely compete for the closer job in Baltimore.

On top of that the Orioles landed a trio of minor league pitchers, all of whom ranked in the Mariners top 18 prospects according to Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook.



Granted the three pitchers the Twins landed in the Santana trade ranked among the Mets top seven prospects, but Baltimore's ability to bring in a guy like Jones, who will most likely be the team's starting center fielder, is where they beat the Twins in moving their ace.

No one except those intimately involved in the negotiations knows what circumstances led to the Twins basically being left with no other choice but to take the deal with the Mets, but one thing is for certain and that is that the Orioles managed to do what the Twins could not and get fair market value for one of the best pitchers in the game.

Dealing in Uncertainty

Of all the things former Twins GM Terry Ryan taught his successor Bill Smith one of them was clearly not the ability to be a shrewd negotiator.

After dangling the game's most dominant pitcher in front of both the Yankees and Red Sox for several months and successfully pitting them against one another in a bidding war of sorts, Smith didn't just drop the ball, he threw it over the fence with the scary dog on the other side.

Instead of capitalizing on the opportunity to add ready-right-now young stars like Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury, Smith decided to hold out for a better offer and in the meantime allowed both the Yankees and Red Sox to reconsider letting their most prized prospects go.

What Smith was left with was the other New York team, the Mets, and an offer that somehow did not include their top prospect Fernando Martinez. Staring straight in the face of losing Johan Santana for nothing more than two first round draft picks, Smith pulled the trigger on a deal that according to the experts was no better than the fourth best deal he could have gotten for his 28-year-old ace.

That of course is the bad news.



The good news is that in return for Santana the Twins were able to add four youngsters, each with the potential to be pretty good players. 22-year-old center fielder Carlos Gomez would have to be considered the "centerpiece" of the deal and gives the Twins a potential legit replacement for the departed Torii Hunter.

The three pitchers in the deal vary in potential stardom, but all ranked among the Mets' top 10 prospects and two of them project as #2 or #3 starters.

Like any deal of this nature, where one team gives up a bona fide superstar in return for prospects who have little to no big league experience, no one can say for sure that the Twins in this case got the short end of the deal.

But lets face facts here, on the surface the Twins not only got the short end of the deal, they should be ashamed of themselves for either not doing more to keep the best pitcher in baseball or getting at least one reasonably sure thing back in return.

Forget what the Minnesota spin doctors are going to tell you over the next weeks and months, this was not a good deal for the Twins. At best, by 2010 each of the four players the Twins got for Santana will be in the big leagues and two of them will be very good. Not great like the player they gave up, but very good.

They're going to try and sell you on the signings of Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer as well as the acquisition of star-to-be Delmon Young. All nice moves to be sure, but the reality of the situation is that even with the money being spent on those guys the Twins payroll will actually go down in 2008.

To me that reality, especially with a brand new ballpark opening up, is just not good enough for a fan base that is as loyal and deserving of a winning baseball team as the one here in the Twin Cities.

What the Twins basically did was tell their fans that they have no intention of competing until 2010 at the absolute earliest and most likely it'll be longer than that in a division as stacked as the AL Central.



By most accounts the best deal the Twins had the opportunity to jump on was a deal with the Yankees that would have included the 21-year-old Hughes and 23-year-old Melky Cabrera and a lineup that could have looked like this:

SS Adam Everett, CF Melky Cabrera, C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau, RF Michael Cuddyer, LF Delmon Young, DH Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe, 3B Mike Lamb and 2B Brendan Harris

And a starting pitching rotation like this:

Francisco Liriano, Phil Hughes, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey

Combine that with a very solid bullpen anchored by closer Joe Nathan (who could also be gone sooner rather than later) and you have a team that in my opinion could at least compete in the AL Central and is still young enough to be good when the new park opens in 2010.

Instead the Twins will have to try several options in center field including Gomez, Denard Span and Jason Pridie, none of which are proven big league players like Cabrera.

The rotation also takes a hit without a top flight, big league ready talent like Hughes and most likely will have to depend on one of several Triple-A graduates or a low-level free agent like Josh Fogg.

Don't get me wrong here, the Twins are my favorite American League team to be sure, but I can't get behind this trade and am truly disappointed the Twins didn't do better for themselves and their fans.

What Happens Next?

OK Twins fans, you can and should be very happy about new GM Bill Smith's first major trade as the head man for your favorite baseball team. Prying former uber-prospect Delmon Young from the Tampa Bay Rays was impressive, even at the expense of a talent like Matt Garza.

Still, while you revel in your shiny new three-hole hitter you have to be wondering where all this is going.

It's common knowledge by now that unless Twins owner Carl Pohlad suddenly undergoes a Scrooge-esque experience, the best pitcher in baseball is going to be wearing another team's uniform in 2008.

Of course I'm talking about one Johan Santana and the trade rumors that continue to run rampant involving the lefty. If there was ever a guy you were going to pay top dollar to make sure he stays, it's Santana. Yet in typical Twins form they've managed to convince people that it's for the best that they get what they can for him now because they can't afford him.

My bad, they can afford him, they just choose not too.

So okay, Santana's out the door and in his place should be a nice little collection of young talent to pair with the aforementioned Young. A little chemistry building in a locker room revered for it's close knit atmosphere, perhaps Francisco Liriano gets healthy and returns to his dominating form and all is right with the world.



Of course there's always the other scenario, the one the Twins and their fans seem more than a little reluctant to consider.

In that scenario the hot-headed Young, taking the place of team leader and Twins icon Torii Hunter, shakes up the happy-go-lucky locker room and infuses it with a little good old fashioned diva attitude.

Liriano's recovery takes longer than expected and his stuff isn't nearly as un-hittable as the mental and physical hurdles prove too much for the young guy. On top of that the young players received in the Santana trade turn out to be a year or two away from really being good and manager Ron Gardenhire is left to juggle his roster all year.

Not only that, but the team's struggles support the front office's idea that it's a good idea to move closer Joe Nathan before he becomes a free agent and so they do just that and get less than market value for a guy who has to be considered one of the three or four best closers in the game.

You see where I'm going with this right? Where does it stop? When is it not good enough for a franchise with the second richest owner in all of sports is more willing to trade their best players than sign them?

Yes the Twins minor league system has been strong over the years and against all odds they've managed to run a successful organization built primarily on home-grown talent. But that kind of success can't last forever and at some point you need to start throwing some money around.

What are the top guys coming up in the Twins system supposed to think? At this point they can be reasonably sure that if they do make it to the show and perform well that they should keep their bags packed come contract time, and that's sad.

A look ahead at the top players on the Twins roster reveals that former AL MVP Justin Morneau could be next to go, followed by right fielder Michael Cuddyer and even the newly acquired Young if he doesn't get the kind of money I'm sure he believes he's worth from the Twins.



With a beautiful new ballpark on the horizon and sagging interest in both the Vikings and Timberwolves, now is the time for the Twins to step it up and claim their place as Minnesota's top draw.

Instead they seem content to spend less money than the Kansas City Royals and hope that things work out. I don't know about you, but like the Twins themselves, I'm not buying it.